Chapter 1: The Natural Experiment of Energy Generation

Since 2014, I have been observing a fascinating case study in China that compares the scalability of nuclear energy to that of renewable sources like wind and solar. My initial theory suggested that the modular nature and manufacturability of wind and solar would allow them to scale up more effectively.

The evidence supporting this theory was compelling when I first reported my findings in 2019 and subsequently updated them in 2021 and 2022. The latest data for 2023 reinforces this pattern: while China's nuclear capacity saw a meager increase of only 1.2 GW, wind and solar combined added an impressive 278 GW. Even accounting for differences in capacity factors, nuclear's contribution translates to around 7 TWh of new low-carbon energy annually, whereas wind and solar together produce approximately 427 TWh—over 60 times more low-carbon electricity.

This rapid expansion of renewable energy is yielding positive outcomes. As China's total electricity generation has surged, its carbon emissions per megawatt-hour (MWh) have also declined significantly. Recent figures indicate emissions at 550 kg of CO2 equivalent per MWh, nearing the USA's 387 kg of CO2 equivalent per MWh, with a much steeper downward trend.

It’s worth noting that there were no new hydroelectric facilities commissioned in China during this period; the increase in low-carbon generation is entirely attributed to wind and solar. This situation is expected to shift with the upcoming Tibetan Yarlung Tsangpo river dam, projected to be operational by the mid-2030s, which will generate three times the annual energy output of the Three Gorges Dam, making it the largest dam globally.

Understanding Natural Experiments

What exactly is a natural experiment? It refers to real-world scenarios that allow for useful comparisons by controlling various factors. A notable example involved a region where half the population experienced a blackout, leading researchers to investigate its effects on community behavior, revealing unexpected outcomes.

China serves as a natural experiment for the scalability of wind and solar energy due to several controlled variables. Both energy programs are national strategic initiatives managed from the top down. I began my analysis in 2010, as the nuclear initiative had been active for about 15 years, while the renewable energy sector had been operational for five years, allowing both systems to mature.

One argument made by proponents of nuclear energy in the West is that excessive regulations hinder its development compared to wind and solar. However, China's regulatory framework for nuclear energy is markedly different from that of the USA or the UK. They also argue that public fears regarding radiation have created significant obstacles, yet China's government is less influenced by public sentiment and environmental opposition than in many Western nations.

The Chinese government possesses a long-standing track record of executing large-scale infrastructure projects and has a nuclear weapons program that aligns military and commercial nuclear initiatives. The state is also willing to finance strategic infrastructure through long-term public debt, presenting no financial hurdles.

The Challenges of Nuclear Scaling

Despite these advantages, China's nuclear program has struggled to scale. It peaked in 2018 with seven reactors generating 8.2 GW. Over the past five years, the average addition has been just 2.3 GW, with only 1.2 GW added last year from a new large reactor and a small modular reactor.

This situation raises questions about the compatibility of nuclear energy and free-market principles, particularly given China's market economy with significant state intervention. The presence of the small modular reactor indicates challenges in the nuclear sector.

For nuclear energy to succeed historically, it has been crucial to limit designs to one or two, allowing for repeated construction while preventing local variations. This is a challenge, as diverse reactor designs hinder the sharing of lessons learned and complicate workforce development.

China's nuclear strategy mirrors its approach to wind and solar, focusing on both local deployment and global sales. However, the variation in reactor designs introduces complexity that slows down progress. The lack of consensus on nuclear design worldwide results in multiple options for local deployments, complicating the focus.

Would China have been able to achieve the same level of success in wind and solar if it had not encountered these challenges? It's unlikely, as the modular and manufacturable nature of these technologies, combined with the advantages of Wright's Law, would always surpass nuclear energy's limitations.

Cost Overruns and Risks

Globally, solar and wind projects have demonstrated an impressive record of minimal cost or schedule overruns, according to Professor Bent Flyvbjerg's analysis of over 16,000 projects exceeding one billion USD. In contrast, nuclear energy projects are fraught with long-term risks that often lead to significant budget and schedule overruns.

While it is possible to manage nuclear construction risks effectively, doing so requires stringent conditions for success. Even China, which has excelled at building large-scale infrastructure rapidly, has struggled with its nuclear initiatives. While there is hope for future improvements, it seems unlikely that nuclear energy will match the rapid advancements seen in wind, solar, battery storage, and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technologies.

Chapter 2: The Future of Energy in China

As China's renewable energy sector continues to flourish, the prospects for nuclear energy remain uncertain. The trends point toward a sustainable future largely driven by wind and solar power, which may overshadow nuclear's potential in the years to come.