The Ubiquity of Misinformation

What has led to the widespread use of "fake news"?

The answer lies in engagement. On social media, engagement translates into increased views and, consequently, higher advertising revenue. Certain phrases tend to boost engagement:

• "... will make you ..."
• “This is why …”
• “… we can guess …”

These expressions are often featured in posts and clickbait articles, where the headlines promise much but fail to deliver upon interaction.

Let's explore the various forms of misinformation present in our digital landscape.

Understanding Numbers and Nonsense

Numbers hold a unique position in the realm of misinformation; they can be manipulated from different contexts to support dubious claims, misused statistics, or what is termed "mathiness."

Mathiness refers to the use of seemingly mathematical expressions that lack genuine mathematical validity. This tactic is common because numbers and formulas lend an air of credibility, reinforcing a statement.

However, the misuse of numbers isn't always intentional; it can also depend on the context.

Consider metrics.

Once a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a reliable measure. This concept is known as Goodhart's law.

People are resourceful in reaching objectives and exploiting system flaws. "Gaps" in systems are quickly identified and leveraged to achieve target figures. For instance, the authors of Calling Bullshit, Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin D. West, highlight an example in car sales:

Setting the number of cars sold as a benchmark for sales personnel seems logical since it's tied to dealership revenue and profit.

Nevertheless, pressuring salespeople to offload as many cars as possible can result in discounting and unsustainable sales tactics, potentially jeopardizing the dealership's profitability.

Data Quality is Crucial

Misinformation related to data often stems from selection errors, known as selection bias. For instance, in dating, it may appear that nice individuals are usually less attractive, while those we find appealing may not be very kind.

Why is this the case?

It boils down to our criteria for both niceness and attractiveness. These standards are interconnected: we might overlook some unpleasant traits if someone is exceptionally attractive.

However, the situation is more complex; unless one is a wealthy and charming individual, not everyone will find you appealing.

This phenomenon is aptly illustrated through visualization.

When examining just the selected data (those we would date and those who would date us), it seems there's a negative correlation between attractiveness and niceness. In reality, this is due to the nature of the selected data; the complete dataset follows a normal distribution.

Visualizations can significantly enhance our understanding of data patterns, but they can also be manipulated to convey misleading narratives.

Misleading Visualizations

Visual representations of data can be incredibly effective. Our brains are naturally inclined to identify patterns in visual formats.

When used appropriately, visualizations are powerful tools—every data scientist and analytics professional is aware of this.

However, pitfalls exist when presenting data. Some arise from a lack of skill in visualization, while others stem from deceitful techniques that convey skewed narratives using the same dataset.

• Glass Shoe: This term describes visualizations that are incorrectly categorized. Their credibility comes solely from their appearance, not their appropriateness. Examples include the periodic table, subway maps, and Venn diagrams.
• Misused Bar Charts: Bar charts should be used to compare absolute values and must always start from zero to maintain proportionality.
• Dual Vertical Axes in Line Charts: These charts can often mislead; different scaling can suggest conflicting narratives. Including zero in both axes generally clarifies the data representation.
• X-Axis Distortion: This can drastically alter the interpretation, leading to misleading conclusions.
• Binning in Bar Charts: The construction of bins can yield a wide range of interpretations depending on how they are defined.
• 3D Charts: A trend from the 1990s, 3D visualizations, particularly pie charts, complicate interpretation without providing any real benefit.

Strategies for Identifying Misinformation

To effectively challenge misinformation and fake news, critical thinking is essential. Here are some straightforward strategies to enhance your analytical skills:

1. Trust Your Instincts: If something appears too good (or too awful) to be true, it likely is. Our intuition can often detect deception. We should remain cautious of misleading numbers, poor data quality, or manipulated visuals.
2. Evaluate Source Credibility: Does the article or post reference a trustworthy source? In academia, journal rankings can help differentiate reputable from unreliable sources.
3. Use Fermi Approximation: Often, figures in fake news are wildly inaccurate. This approximation allows for rough estimations without needing precise numbers—like rounding a country's population to the nearest power of ten.

These techniques can sharpen your ability to recognize misinformation, but how do you prove the information is incorrect?

Addressing Misinformation

4. Reductio ad Absurdum: Simplify a statement to the point of absurdity to refute it.
5. Counter-evidence: This common scientific method can be applied across various contexts. Are there other articles or posts that contradict the claim? Leverage this information.
6. Draw an Analogy: Comparisons can highlight flaws in a statement. For example, "If apples can't fly, then oranges can't either."
7. Revisualize Data: The way data is presented significantly influences its interpretation. By presenting data in a new, objective way, you can dismantle false claims.
8. Construct a Null Model: A simple model that requires no data can effectively debunk misinformation. If the null model's behavior resembles the data-driven model, it suggests that the data may not provide additional insights.

When challenging a deeply held belief, conflicts may arise. To mitigate this, adhere to these principles:

9. Distinguish Issue from Identity: Avoid personal attacks, as this fosters open-mindedness for alternative viewpoints.
10. Seek Common Ground: Finding shared interests makes it easier to build consensus.