The Diverging Paths of London and New York in the COVID-19 Crisis
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Over recent months, New York City has effectively managed the spread of the coronavirus, while London has experienced a significant increase in daily cases.
By Susie Neilson and Morgan McFall-Johnsen
When the coronavirus initially emerged in the US and the UK, both New York City and London implemented similar measures: New York instituted a stay-at-home order on March 22, followed by London on March 26.
However, since that time, the pandemic trajectories of the two cities have significantly diverged.
New York emerged as the first major hotspot in the US, reaching a peak of over 6,000 daily cases in April, alongside more than 500 deaths per day (with many cases likely unreported due to limited testing). In contrast, London maintained approximately 900 new cases daily during that period.
Throughout the summer, both cities managed to keep the virus under control, with London averaging only a handful of new cases daily and New York seeing a few hundred. However, starting in August, London’s case numbers began to rise sharply, reaching nearly 2,000 new cases per day by November 5. Meanwhile, New York maintained a relatively low average of 745 new cases per day.
Experts attribute London’s recent surge to mixed messaging from officials, insufficient contact tracing, and a hasty reopening of restaurants, bars, and gyms. In contrast, after regaining control from its spring surge, New York implemented extensive testing, contact tracing, and targeted lockdown measures, along with consistent public health messaging.
David Heymann, an infectious-disease expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, described New York’s approach as an anomaly.
“Everyone locked down without exit strategies, and when they reopened, they did so rapidly,” he explained to Business Insider.
London's Rapid Reopening and Mask Policy Lapses
Both New York and London are major global cities with populations between 8 to 9 million, characterized by diverse demographics and densely populated apartments. However, while New York determined the specifics of its lockdown, London largely followed guidelines set for the entire UK.
London reopened significant sectors of its economy in tandem with the rest of England, including rural areas. Indoor gyms in England were allowed to reopen on July 25, a month prior to New York's decision, and pubs and restaurants opened for indoor service on July 4. New York did not permit indoor dining until September 30 and has yet to reopen bars.
The UK government even encouraged dining out. In July, Rishi Sunak, head of the UK treasury, introduced the “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme, which offered a 50% discount on meals during certain weekdays in August. This initiative significantly boosted restaurant attendance, with more diners than in August 2019.
While the exact impact of “Eat Out to Help Out” on the virus's spread is difficult to gauge, one researcher suggested it may have contributed to nearly 20% of new clusters over the summer.
Despite the rise in case counts, London has not seen a corresponding spike in hospitalization or death rates during this second wave, averaging just under 17 deaths per day—though this is higher than New York’s roughly 8 deaths per day. The majority of London’s new cases are among younger individuals, with people aged 20 to 39 accounting for most infections.
Heymann cautioned that this trend could change, as the virus might eventually reach older populations.
Targeted Lockdowns in New York City
In early October, New York officials enacted two-week lockdowns in specific neighborhoods of Brooklyn and Queens experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases, closing schools, indoor dining, and non-essential businesses based on the severity of the outbreaks.
Consequently, new outbreaks have remained contained within those boroughs, according to Maureen Miller, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.
“There’s no need to shut down the entire city,” she told Business Insider. “This approach contrasts sharply with other US cities and certainly with London.”
Miller noted that the UK government has tended to operate using an “on/off switch,” opting for complete reopenings or widespread lockdowns, which can lead to fatigue among residents in low-risk areas while failing to adequately address new outbreaks.
Although UK officials initially considered a targeted approach like New York’s—Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed interest in a “local, regional approach” on October 14—England ultimately declared a nationwide lockdown on October 31.
London has also faced challenges in expanding testing availability. In September, residents reported waiting days to schedule COVID-19 tests. Conversely, New York launched a universal testing initiative in June, providing free testing at 150 locations and conducting between 38,000 and 65,000 tests daily.
This extensive testing capability supports effective contact tracing and targeted lockdowns, Miller noted.
Challenges in England’s Contact-Tracing Program
Initially, New York struggled to engage residents with its 3,000-person contact-tracing team. However, by September, the system successfully contacted 91% of all new COVID-19 cases, as reported by Modern Healthcare.
In contrast, England’s NHS Test and Trace system has not achieved similar improvements, only reaching 74% of new cases by September, up from 73.4% in May.
British Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick stated in October that the government aims to give local governments more control over contact tracing, as they have achieved a 97% success rate, but this change has yet to occur.
Clear Communication from New York
During the spring, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo gained prominence for his daily briefings, where he shared case counts, death statistics, projections, and expert recommendations.
“People were eager to hear what he had to say. Cuomo became a star because of this,” Miller commented.
Additionally, WiFi kiosks across the city disseminated messages about mask-wearing, handwashing, and staying home.
“I’m thrilled that New York City stands out in such a positive way,” Miller added. “This is largely due to the consistent and clear communication from both the governor and mayor and the careful approach taken in reopening the city.”
In contrast, no London leader matched Cuomo’s frequency or effectiveness in communication. Many Londoners have voiced frustrations over inconsistent national messaging.
“Go to the pub, but avoid close contact with others. Only meet in groups of six, yet dine with 30 other patrons. Take public transport to work, but avoid it otherwise. Follow the scientists’ advice, except when we disregard it,” Guardian columnist Imogen West-Knights critiqued the government’s mixed signals.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has echoed these frustrations, stating in August, “There are too many instances of mixed messaging and unclear communication, which is contributing to rising cases.”
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