Chapter 1: The Unforeseen Impact of Climate Change

What occurs when there's only two hours to evacuate, but traffic jams prevent escape?

Hurricane Otis took everyone by surprise. Meteorologists were still assessing whether it was merely a strong storm when it rapidly transformed into a lethal hurricane within hours. The consequences were catastrophic. In late October 2023, just after midnight, it struck near Acapulco, annihilating the tourist hotspot.

The remarkable aspect of Otis was its rapid escalation from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within just 24 hours—an unprecedented event.

However, Hurricane Otis was not the sole weather incident to escalate swiftly into a perilous situation. Three hurricanes underwent a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, where the storm's peak winds surged by at least 30 knots (approximately 35 mph) in a single day. As global temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, the upcoming decades are likely to see hurricanes that intensify at even faster rates. In an alarming example from current climate conditions, one study suggested that an extreme intensification of 60 knots (70 mph) within 24 hours occurs roughly once every century. Without a change in greenhouse gas emission rates, this level of rapid intensification could occur once every five to ten years by 2100.

Furthermore, there are other weather phenomena that have only recently entered public awareness. One such occurrence is the increasingly frequent atmospheric river. Many of us were unaware that the atmosphere could transport so much moisture that it could inundate a city with 20 feet of water in mere hours.

Research on these water vapor plumes drawn from the tropical Pacific has expanded significantly in the thirty years since the term "atmospheric rivers" was coined. However, forecasts regarding where storms will make landfall can still be off by hundreds of miles, complicating predictions about specific storm developments.

An intriguing observation is how scientists (along with more conservative media outlets) continuously assert that these changes will occur "by the year 2100." Given human nature, such distant predictions fail to inspire urgency for immediate adaptation to our changing world. The reality is that we are already navigating an era marked by unexpected weather events.

The takeaway is that no matter our location, we can suddenly face weather anomalies that have never previously affected our areas, and if they had been regular occurrences in the past, we would have had at least three days to a week of warning.

A piece from Scientific American highlights that tornadoes are extending eastward, appearing in regions that had never experienced them before. This article is certainly worth reading.

In the past six months, I've frequently encountered research meteorologists asserting that climate change is advancing exponentially—something they had not foreseen. In essence, the faster the changes occur, the quicker they seem to accelerate. There have also been results that defy expectations.

What does this mean for individuals like you and me?

After being led to believe that Ireland was a refuge from the impacts of climate change, I was startled to learn that meteorologists predict extreme weather events in Ireland as well. This includes an increase in rainfall as well as prolonged periods of drought. Curiously, I dug deeper to understand what constitutes a drought in Ireland.

It turns out that drought doesn't necessarily mean a complete lack of rain; it simply refers to having less rainfall than usual. It's a learning experience.

Anticipating weather patterns in our areas proves challenging, as scientists can provide some insights into sea-level rise or the effects of increased heat and carbon dioxide, but they struggle to predict specific weather events far enough in advance for us to adapt our lives accordingly.

For instance, while scientists may indicate that Florida will experience more hurricanes, they cannot predict which areas, previously unaffected by severe weather, will now be impacted. As noted, tornadoes are migrating eastward.

It's also true that we will all become more familiar with meteorological terminology that previously held no relevance for us.

In summary, wherever we are, we can't guarantee safety from a massive atmospheric river that could unleash catastrophic amounts of water upon us—sometimes just a day after enjoying a sunny outing.

It’s merely a matter of time before major urban areas face flooding or destruction. If such a fate can befall Acapulco (home to over a million people), it can occur anywhere. Acapulco had never previously experienced a storm of Otis's magnitude.

Chapter 2: The Numbness to Disaster

Human nature has a mechanism for coping: we become desensitized when faced with repeated tragedies. I understand this well; having grown up in Africa, I've witnessed my share.

For instance, I scarcely react to the poster below, which circulated in Johannesburg—showing a shaman seeking human body parts.

During my five years in Cape Town, I encountered various bizarre posters, some of which are unfathomable to a Western mindset. Eventually, after witnessing too much, one becomes immune to the chaos.

The same will happen with the multitude of disastrous weather events. Numerous cities worldwide are flooding weekly, becoming so commonplace that they barely make headlines. Flood-list, a website that tracks significant floods globally, offers insight into the magnitude of events we currently overlook.

Eventually, we will reach a point where the frequency of disastrous weather events will overwhelm government responses to repairs and recovery. Insurance companies are already beginning to withdraw, recognizing that no amount of premiums can compensate for the billions lost to flooding.

The electrical grid may fail in certain areas. More lives will be lost over time. Ultimately, the population will dwindle—not just due to weather damage, but because essential services like healthcare, education, food, and water will be adversely affected.

What troubles me is the straightforward logic of it all. One consequence leads to another, yet we remain engrossed in distractions—watching the Super Bowl, debating the merits of cosmetic surgery, and scrolling through social media for entertainment.

Why do we do this?

I suspect many of us have resigned ourselves to the situation.

Perhaps we believe there is nothing more we can do.

This video explores the implications of global warming and what a three-degree increase might look like for our planet.

This video discusses the potential consequences of crossing six critical climate tipping points and how they will reshape our world.